In this episode, Jennifer Thornquest speaks with Nicolas Florquin, Head of Data and Analytics at the Small Arms Survey, about the transnational circulation and control of small arms in Latin America. Their conversation explores the drivers, risks, and regulation of military-style firearms across state and non-state spheres, with a particular focus on Brazil. Florquin discusses the dynamics behind both legal and illicit flows of these weapons, how they enter criminal markets, and the risks of diversion from authorised trade. Together they examine the broader project—Mapping the Transnational Circulation and Control of Small Arms in Latin America—which brings together research partners to understand how weapons circulate across borders, the socio-political dynamics shaping this circulation, and potential policy responses to reduce violence and strengthen cooperation.
By Bruno Langeani and Natalia Pollachi
The illicit circulation of military-style firearms (MSF) in Brazil has increased, raising concerns about its impact on violence and organized crime. This study analyses firearm seizure data from Brazil’s Southeast region (2019–2023) to assess the growth and profile of these weapons. While MSF still represents a small fraction of total seizures (rising from 1.7% to 2.4% nationwide and 3% to 4.3% in the Southeast), their presence in criminal hands has escalated.
Two key dynamics shape this landscape. First, severe limitations in data collection hinder accurate diagnostics and policymaking. Key information—such as privately made or modified firearms—remains uncollected, and available data is often inconsistent. Second, the proliferation of MSF has been driven by both domestic and international regulatory factors, particularly for rifles. The relaxation of gun laws under the Bolsonaro administration (2019–2022) facilitated legal access to semi-automatic rifles, some of which were diverted to criminal networks. Meanwhile, the United States remains a major source of both complete firearms and unmarked components, sustaining Brazil’s illicit market.
Additionally, a high percentage of seized weapons lack proper classification, further complicating law enforcement efforts to track and disrupt illicit firearm flows. Addressing this issue requires strengthening regulatory frameworks, forensic capabilities, and data transparency to curb the expanding role of MSF in Brazil’s criminal landscape.
By Bruno Langeani
Over the past decade, Brazil has seen a dramatic rise in the seizure of military‑style rifles—once a rarity outside Rio de Janeiro—across nearly every state, from Rio Grande do Norte and Bahia to São Paulo, where annual seizures quintupled between 2018 and 2024. These high‑powered weapons, which can fire accurately over a kilometer and penetrate body armor, have escalated the lethality of criminal-police confrontations and bolstered criminal groups’ territorial control. In addition to traditional smuggling routes and internal diversions—exacerbated by a 2019 regulation that allowed civilians to purchase up to 30 rifles under collector or sport‑shooter licenses—Brazil is now grappling with the proliferation of “ghost guns,” unmarked, home‑built firearms made with 3D printers or CNC machines and assembled from imported frames.
By Nicolas Florquin and Victor de Olivera
Based on UN Comtrade data, reported global small arms and light weapons (hereafter ‘small arms’) exports rose sharply from USD 5 billion in 2019 to USD 9.2 billion in 2024. Consistent with previous trade updates, ammunition remains the most traded weapon category, accounting for 35% of the value of reported global imports for the period 2019–24, followed by sporting and hunting shotguns and rifles (21%), and pistols and revolvers (18%).
The Authorized Trade in Small Arms: Latin America from a Global Perspective—a Situation Update from the Mapping the Transnational Circulation and Control of Small Arms in Latin America project—examines the global authorized trade in small arms between 2019 and 2024, with a particular focus on trends in Latin America. It finds the region to be a comparatively small player in the global authorized small arms trade, accounting for 2.8% of global small arms imports and 6.3% of exports. Yet military firearms represented about 10% of all Latin American small arms imports during this period—almost double the global average of 5.6%.
The Situation Update also identifies a significant increase in European—and in particular Eastern European—imports during this period, which seem to have fuelled the growing trade. Indeed, European imports accounted for 40% of all reported global imports in 2024, while the value of Eastern European imports multiplied by more than ten between 2019 and 2024.
How do small arms and light weapons flow across the borders of Latin America and its territories? On August 28th, 10:00h to 16:00h, IRI/PUC-Rio will bring together national and international experts to discuss contemporary trends and challenges linked to arms flows in Latin America.
Discussions will include issues related to the circulation, control, and effects of rifles on broad social processes that allow the modulation and reproduction of violence. The two roundtables will discuss the current dynamics of the circulation of weapons and how these dynamics fuel and transform armed violence in the region, as well as existing challenges for data production and analysis on arms flows and their control.
The seminar “Transnational Arms Flows in Latin America: Trends and Challenges” will be held on August 28th, 10:00h to 16:00h, in a hybrid format – at the IRI2 Auditorium (R. Marquês de São Vicente, 232 – Gávea) and via Zoom.
The event is held by IRI/PUC-Rio in collaboration with the Centre on Conflict, Development & Peacebuilding (CCDP/IHEID) and the Small Arms Survey, with the support of FAPERJ and the Swiss Network for International Studies (SNIS).
Small arms play a central role in the patterns of political and criminal violence observed in Latin America and the rest of the world. Among the various types of firearms used in the region, rifles are a case study for examining the emergence of violent dynamics and identifying effective entry points for policy responses and international cooperation initiatives.
In celebration of its 10th anniversary, the Global South Unit for Mediation (GSUM) announces that registration is now open for the dialogue “Arms Circulation and Control in Latin America”, which will take place on Thursday, December 5, from 4pm to 6pm. The event will take place in person at the Digital Humanities Laboratory, Estrada da Gávea 50, Sala 302 Gávea/RJ.
The dialog will feature the participation of IRI/PUC-Rio professors Monica Herz, Luísa Cruz Lobato and Victória Santos, who will present the work of the project “Mapping the Transnational Circulation and Control of Small Arms in Latin America”, carried out with the support of the Swiss Network for International Studies (SNIS).
